By John Groober
novembr can’t git her soon enough.
horace dediu:
so teh queshun iz y iz teh ipad bein cloned while teh ipod has remained in teh markit by itself?
i has been askin 4 yeers. still no such ting.
christophr breen:
an unexpectd change iz dat itunez automator akshuns no longr load. dis affects both existin workflows creatd 4 an earlir vershun ov itunez as well as any workflows u create wif itunez 10 installd. dose existin workflows simply won’t execute. an if u attempt 2 create nu workflows dat include itunez akshuns, u’ll discover dat teh itunez akshuns dun appear in teh akshuns library if u’ve installd itunez 10.
still tied 2 verizon’s 3g netwerk — ur wi-fi connecshun doesn’t disconnect while usin teh app, but skype doesn’t akshully use it. soundz great.
crn:
an while samsung also expects 2 leverage itz own software, calld bada, in future devicez as well, iz puttin teh majority ov itz eggs in teh android basket, as android’s popularity continuez 2 snowball wif othr device makerz liek motorola an htc hitching der device wagons 2 google android.
dat wasn’t teh tune samsung wuz singing bout bada last yer.
kara swisher:
an facebook iz nowhere on ping, eithr. currently, thar iz no linking, sharin or participation ov any kind wif facebook–or twittr or myspace–on ping, which will werk only on teh itunez software on computerz, ifonez an ipodz.
when i askd jobz bout dat, he sed apple had inded held talkz wif facebook bout variety ov unspecified partnerships relatd 2 ping, but teh discushuns went nowhere.
teh reason, accordin 2 jobz: facebook wantd “onerous termz dat we cud not agree 2.”
giv samsung credit: der debut android tablet iz not clone ov teh ipad. smallr an lighter, if it has an advantage, iz dat u can hold it in wan hand 4 readin. bray has linkz 2 coverage elsewhere, 2.
summer’s almost ovar an u wants 2 git in shape an shed dose extra pounds. me lucius kwok, an mah company felt tip inc has sum great ios appz 4 dat. couch 2 5k getz ur butt off ur couch an runnin 5k, usin tested 9-week workout program basd on intervals. food diary makez it easy 2 follow teh simple equashun: burn moar calories than u consume, an u’ll lose weight. check them out in teh ifone app store.
android iz open, but moar open on verizon.
if u’re mainly interestd in netflix streamin, i can’t c buyin wan ov thees ovar an apple tv. am i missin somethin?
roku doez has othr content, liek, 4 example, mlb.tv. an teh apple tv doesn’t has an api 4 an app store. but: wut if apple openz up airplay 2 ifone an ipad appz? then teh ifone/ipad mlb at bat app cud stream video 2 teh apple tv.
recorded dis afternoon, soon aftr teh end ov todai’s apple event, dan benjamin an i discuss each ov teh hooj announcements. lawts 2 talk bout.
dis episode wuz sponsored by instapaper. if u’re not usin instapaper, shame on u.
dis iz teh game epic demoed durin todai’s event. impressive as hell.
frum apple’s tech specz 4 teh cameras:
video recordin, hd (720p) up 2 30 framez per second wif audio; still fotos (960 × 720) wif bak camera.
so iz not teh same camera as teh ifone 4. it doez doez still fotos, but they’re undr wan megapixel in resolushun. not surprisn, though — thar’s wai les room in teh thin frame ov teh touch.
josh topolsky, 3 weekz ago:
o, an thar’s wan moar ting — apple will bees officially changin teh naym ov teh device 2 itv, abandoning teh current moniker in favor ov somethin lil moar in line wif itz current iofferings.
not so mutch.
furthermore, teh device will bees gettin appz an presumably an app store entry, though iz unclear if thar will bees cross-pollination tween ipad an ifone / ipod touch offerings an nu apple tv applicashuns
not so mutch thar, eithr. teh device iz runnin ios, though, trust me. so iz posible dat sum sort ov sdk iz comin in teh future. but me not goin 2 hold mah breath. judgin frum teh demo todai, i finks teh fact dat iz runnin ios undr teh hood iz jus an implementashun detail.
joshua benton, on developin teh nieman journalism lab’s free ifone app usin taplynx.
clevr $15 utility 4 mac os x frum cordless dog:
if u’re fastidious bout keepin ur windowz tidy, stay iz 4 u. stay ensures dat ur windowz r alwayz wer u wants them 2 bees, even as u connect an disconnect displayz.
arnold kim:
4 non-supportd readerz hoo r desperate 2 watch teh stream close 2 liv, it seemz likely dat u will bees able 2 watch it — at least in stops an startz. teh http liv stream protocol iz basd on vary standard technologiez. teh stream iz simply providd in an mpeg2 playlist (m3u file) dat iz addd 2 as teh stream continuez. thees standard playlists will load in vlc 4 both mac an windowz.
technically fascintatin, emotionally movin interactiv “video” by chris milk 4 arcade fire’s nu single, “we usd 2 wait”. all html5, not lick ov flash; try it in chrome or safari 5. nice rite-up bout it her at teh chome experiments siet.
thar r sum raisd eyebrows todai regardin apple’s claim dat der liv streamin 4 todai’s event iz “based on open standardz”, but only available 4 mac os x 10.6 an ios userz. iz damn shame dat windowz userz can’t watch it, but dat doesn’t mean it isnt an open standard. maybe “proposed open standard” wud bees moar apt, though.
lawts ov speculashun frum readerz via email, by teh wai, dat teh liv streamin ov teh event iz goin 2 bees part ov teh event itself — dat apple iz goin 2 announce high-fidelity liv video streamin as major nu feachur 4 apple tv, macz, an ios devicez.
update: email frum self-describd “ietf weenie”:
http://toolz.ietf.org/html/draft-pantos-http-liv-streamin-04 iz not proposed open standard. at teh top ov teh document, it sez “intended status: informational”. dat meanz dat teh ietf will has no control ovar teh content; only teh authorz doez. dis iz akshully pritee important distincshun.
same video i linked 2 frum ian betteridge yesterdai, but, watchin it again todai, wut i notice isnt jus teh appallin video frame rate (“seconds per frame, not framez per second”, as tofel sez), but also how drastically flash content affects scrollin an touch eventz in teh browsr itself. even b4 any flash content iz loadd, thees web pagez scroll wif jaggy animashun, an touch eventz dun registr immediately. unresponsive scrollin an taps r unacceptable.
july 2002:
approximately 50,000 peeps usd quicktime® 2 watch apple’s july 17 liv webcast ov steve jobs’ macworld nu york 2002 keynote, which wuz simulcast in both quicktime 5 an quicktime 6.
goin 2 bees lot moar than 50,000 todai.
how lotz da yeers has it been since apple has trid dis? if it holdz up — hooj “if”, considerin apple’s previous liv-streamin efforts — thar goez teh liv-bloggin racket.
ronald grover an petr burrowz, reportin 4 bloomberg:
apple inc., preparing 2 announce nu set-top box dat deliverz tv 2 consumerz, will include moviez frum netflix inc., accordin 2 3 peeps wif knowledge ov teh planz.
but iz teh netflix integrashn built into teh sistem, or, iz it an app?
ian betteridge:
wut doez dis demonstrate? simply dat teh idea dat apple cud simply magically put flash on teh ipad (which runz processor in teh same clas as teh nexus wan) iz fantasy. ignoring teh broader reasonz 4 apple wantin 2 keep flash off itz platform, iz clear dat flash iz simply 2 processor-intensive 2 werk properly on mobile-clas processors as currently specified.
hans gerwitz on teh tricky usr-interacshun problemz posed by an ios-basd apple tv.
best episode yet. moar “nerd boyfriend” segments, plz.
“oh dat’s rite, private pyle, dun mak any f&^%ing effort 2 git 2 teh top ov teh f&^%ing obstacle. if god wud has wantd u up thar he wud has miracled ur ass up thar by nao, wouldn’t he?”
wif most onion storiez, 90 persent ov teh joke iz in teh headline. wif dis wan, iz in teh foto.
lookz liek sum great improovements. teh “just type” feachur soundz liek launchbar or quicksilvr.
everythin iz comin up milhouse.
mike matas yesterdai, on twittr, responding 2 mah piece on apple/adobe an flash:
i knoe hoo iz losin in teh battle tween apple an adobe ovar flash. ipad ownerz.
dave winer expresses similar sentiment her.
but how else cud it bees? if apple cud jus add flash playr 2 teh ipad, it wud eithr () werk well, or (b) werk poorly. flash playr 4 android seemz 2 werk poorly. flash playr iz not available 4 any othr mobile os. so, i finks iz poor assumpshun dat apple cud, by sheer will, produce vershun ov ios wer flash playr werkz well on teh ipad.
i wrote at length bout thees issuez 6 monthz ago — her, her, her — an i dun wants 2 rehash dose pointz. all dose arguments still stand, though. key point: apple doesn’t has teh source code 2 flash. perhapz adobe has offrd it 2 apple; dat’s posible, but i finks unlikely. but even if they has, y wud apple engineerz bees able 2 mak it perform bettr than adobe engineerz has?
but let’s assume possibility (), dat apple cud “just mak it werk”. but then wut? were stuck wif flash — proprietary closed-source platform controlld by single company — as de facto web standard forever?
if no wan releasez popular web browsin platform dat lacks flash support, then web siets dat already publish flash content r nevr goin 2 moov away frum it. i finks teh web wud bees far bettr place without flash, or, at least, wif flash relegated 2 posishun liek dat ov java applets: thar if u wants it, but not major foundashun.
flash iz nevr goin 2 decrease in popularity so long as all web browserz support it. flash might decrease in popularity cuz ov ios. if u bleev dat flash’s current posishun as de facto standard technology iz harmful 2 teh web, then userz — not jus ios userz but evryone usin teh web — wud benefit if dat happenz.1
but dat’s long-term benefit. in teh short term, ipad userz suffr wif empty white squares an missin content. thar’s no othr wai 2 git thar frum her, though. i finks iz worthwhile, cuz i bleev teh web wud bees bettr place without flash.
me not arguing dat apple iz selflessly acting in teh interest ov teh public. me arguing dat apple’s self interest iz aligned wif teh interest ov teh public wif regard 2 flash. apple isnt promotin itz own proprietary alternativ 2 flash; iz promotin open html5 technologiez. ↩
teh future iz mobile.
alastair jamieson, reportin 4 teh telegraph:
simon winchester, author ov ‘the meanin ov everythin: teh story ov teh oxford english dictionary’, sed teh switch towardz online formatz wuz “prescient”. he sed: “until 6 monthz ago i wuz clinging 2 teh idea dat printd bookz wud likely last 4 evr. since teh arrival ov teh ipad i am nao wholly convincd otherwize.”
2morrow (tuesdai) afternoon, me goin 2 pull teh plug on dis round ov nu t-shirts. ordr nao if u wants wan, cuz were only goin 2 print as lotz da shirts as thar r orderz. dis iz ur last chance 2 ordr df t-shirt 4 at least teh next few monthz.
an wer by “we”, i mean mah frend brian jaramillo, hoo handlez teh screen-printin an shippin 4 all df shirt orderz. (brian iz teh guy hoo prints great shirts liek andy versus apple an exploded ifone.)
thom holwerda:
apple fought hard 2 maintain jailbreaking as an illegal activity, an nao groober iz srsly arguing dat all dis wuz, well, jus joke? didnt happen? figment ov r collective imagination? i gues were seein revisionist history in teh makin her. fascintatin.
i didnt sai apple doesn’t has stance regardin jailbreaking. but judgin by der akshuns 2 date, they’re treating it as nuisance, not significant problem. teh context 4 all dis, recall, iz colin gibbs’s argument dat apple iz wasting significant effort fighting jailbreaking. they might, someday. dat wouldn’t surprise me in teh least. but they haven’t 2 date.
dis iz akshully last week’s show, but we didnt record it til ovar teh weekend an so it didnt hit teh airwaves til todai. were still set 4 show dis week, aftr wednesday’s apple event. u shud subscribe 2 teh show’s podcast rss fed, an u’ll stay up 2 date automatically.
teh show iz sponsored by battery go plus, neat lil battery management ifone app frum 9magnets.
andy chu, frum microsoft’s bing 4 mobile team:
todai we r happeh 2 announce teh furst official bing 4 mobile android app available 2 verizon customerz. u can nao download teh free bing app frum ur verizon wireless android phones’ marketplace.
doez dat mean thar’s no bing app 4 android userz on at&t? or anywhere outside teh u.s.?
dave winer argues dat teh absence ov flash on teh ipad “isn’t werkin”:
i c nu flash content several tiems evry dai when i catch up on teh newz wif mah ipad. dis isnt stuff dat’s goin away, iz nu stuff dat creative peeps r publishin. nu stuff, not legacy stuff.
in othr werdz, they knoe we can’t c it on teh ipad an they went ahead anyway.
he’s rite dat apple hasn’t won dis battle, but i finks he’s wrong dat they’re losin. iz still far 2 early 2 tell.
heers how i c dis battle tween apple an adobe. 4 adobe, losin wud bees large-scale abandonment ov flash by web producers — siets dat previously usd flash abandoning it, an nu siets nevr usin it in teh furst place. 4 apple, losin wud bees if teh absence ov flash on ios devicez led 2 peeps choosin competin devicez dat doez support flash — i.e. if teh absence ov flash 4 ios hurt salez ov ifonez, ipod touchez, an ipads.
i finks iz fair 2 sai dat ios iz teh leadin driver ov h.264 html5 video on teh web. apple has web paeg listing “ipad-ready websiets”, an it includez lot ov hooj-naym siets. but — an dis iz hooj but — i dun finks any ov thees siets has abandoned flash. they all offr ios-supportd content as an alternativ 2 flash. dat’s not gud newz 4 adobe, since, previously, all ov thees siets requird flash, but iz not disaster, eithr. frum teh perspectiv ov desktop (mac an windowz) computerz, i dun finks thar’s been mutch ov decrease in teh use ov flash since 2007. frum teh perspectiv ov ifone userz, though, thar’s lot les “missing content” nao than thar wuz in 2007. but, as winer pointz out, thar’s still lot ov flash content dat has no ios-compatible alternativ.
but iz apple bein hurt by dis? teh only competin devicez dat support flash r android 2.2 fonez, which r only jus nao available 2 consumerz. iz far 2 soon 2 judge whethr flash compatibility leads 2 wud-bees ifone buyers choosin android fonez instead. (iz also 2 soon 2 knoe jus how lotz da android userz will bother 2 install flash playr — iz markit download, not installd by default, on sum android fonez.) yez, lawts ov peeps r buyin android fonez — but i dun finks vary lotz da r doin so cuz ov flash. we shall c. an thar r still no competin devicez 4 teh ipod touch or ipad dat support flash.1
b4 teh ifone, flash’s advantage wuz dat it wuz installd on evry major web-browsin computr by default. nao, thar iz major web browsin os wer flash iz not supportd at all. thar iz no alternativ wif markit share dat approaches flash, though — dat’s y were seein html5 video as an alternativ 2, rathr than replacement 4, flash. if adobe loses dis battle, flash’s decline iz goin 2 bees long an slow.
considr: iz thar moar pressure on apple 2 add flash support 2 ios, or on websiets wif flash-only content 2 produce ios-compatible alternativez? such pressure — both on apple an websiet publisherz — iz best measured not by complaintz on teh web, but by salez ov ifonez, ipodz, an ipads. teh moar they sell, teh les likely apple iz 2 cave on flash support, an teh moar likely it iz 4 websiets 2 stop publishin flash-only content.
arguably, “netbooks” runnin windowz — which r thus flash-compatible — r ipad competitorz, an i suppose thar’s sum numbr ov peeps hoo r buyin netbook instead ov an ipad, but wud has buyd an ipad if teh ipad had flash. but i dun finks dat numbr iz vary large. an i finks most netbook buyers c them as cheap, small, lightweight laptop pcs, not as ipad rivals. ↩
“chpwn” — young developr ov appz 4 jailbroken ifonez — sez me wrong dat apple iz not fighting jailbreaking:
if dat wuz akshully how apple felt, they wud not block downgradin 2 4.0.1. they wud continue 2 sign teh shsh hashes requird 4 downgrade. der shsh sistem — which preventz any unapprovd firmware installashun — iz direct proof dat they r strongly against jailbreaking. thar iz not othr benefit 2 teh servr-side firmware signin mechanism they r usin except preventing us frum freeing r fonez. […]
i also wants 2 point out dat jailbroken 4.0.1 wif saurik’s pdf fix iz no les secure than 4.0.2 frum apple.
iz not bout jailbreaking. iz bout security an support. once 4.0.2 wuz releasd, it became teh only supportd vershun ov ios 4. apple isnt goin 2 support downgradin 2 an older vershun ov teh os wif known security vulnerabilities. an they’re certainly not goin 2 support or trust fix 4 teh vulnerability frum jailbreak developr.
put anothr wai: i knoe dat lotz da app store developrz wish dat apple wuz “fighting jailbreaking”, cuz app store piracy depends upon it.
merlin mann, on old color fotografs:
when dun well, thees imagez halp repudiate teh implicit modern readin dat pre-color photography realistically capturd teh simple but alien lives ov peeps hoo wuz neithr as complex, interestin, nor sofisticatd as we cmyk peeps r.
colin gibbs, in piece headlined “why apple shud end itz fight against ifone jailbreaking”:
teh registr reportd last week dat apple iz lukingz 2 fire bak at ifone jailbreakers wif an applicashun 2 patent sistem designd 2 identify teh “hacking, jailbreaking, unlockin or removal ov sim card” frum fone so teh device can bees located an itz data erased. teh company has releasd nu firmware update 4 teh sole purpose ov patching hole dat wuz bein usd 2 jailbreak handsets runnin ios 4 as well, accordin 2 teh group ov developrz dat creatd teh furst ifone 4 jailbreak.
as i rite in mah weekly column ovar at gigaom pro, it makez no sense 4 apple 2 pour efforts 2 thees kinds ov tings; allowin jailbreaking — even implicitly — cud akshully halp moov ifonez off teh shelves.
few pointz. furst, patent applicashuns aren’t necessarily indicative ov akshul product planz. apple filez 4 patentz on any idea or design deemed patentable, whethr they intend 2 akshully brin it 2 markit or not. second, teh point ov such sistem as describd in teh patent depends on ur perspectiv. if u wants 2 jailbreak ur ifone, then yez, such sistem wud seem liek “anti jailbreaking”. but if u dun wants 2 jailbreak ur ifone, such sistem wud bees useful security feachur — reassurance dat ur device’s os has not been tampered wif by malware.
last, apple isnt “fighting” jailbreaking. they simply dun support it. ios 4.0.2 fixd serious security vulnerability. by arguing dat apple shouldn’t has bothered doin so, gibbs iz implicitly arguing dat apple shouldn’t fix security vulnerabilities. iz dat simple. moar apt headline 4 gibbs’s piece wud bees “apple shouldn’t fix security vulnerabilities in ios”.
in weekend wsj interview wif google ceo eric schmidt, schmidt sed:
“i akshully finks most peeps dun wants google 2 anzwr der queshuns. they wants google 2 tell them wut they shud bees doin next. […] teh ting dat makez newspapers so fundamentally fascinating—that serendipity—can bees calculatd nao. we can akshully produce it electronically.”
nick carr, quoting teh above, quips:
i hope google will also bees able 2 tell me teh best candidate 2 vote 4 in elections. i find dat such burden.
but carr doesn’t even menshun teh oddest part ov teh wsj interview:
[schmidt] predicts, apparently srsly, dat evry young person wan dai will bees entitled automatically 2 change hims or her naym on reaching adulthood in ordr 2 disown youthful hijinks stord on der friends’ soshul media siets.
i has been thinkin bout dis since katurdai. heers mah theory: teh problem wif google iz dat eric schmidt iz creepy. i finks he’s rly weird dude. recall, 4 example, dis comment ov schmidt’s frum 2009, regardin google an privacy: “if u has somethin dat u dun wants anyone 2 knoe, maybe u shouldn’t bees doin it in teh furst place.”
teh industry iz filled wif eccentric ceos — billionaires hoo, sai, wear wardrobe dat consistz ov nothin but identical black shirts an levi’s 501 jeans, or hoo dress as samurai warrior, includin swords, at der home. but schmidt doesn’t seem eccentric (or at least not merely so). he seemz creepy.
heers report by jon fortt 4 fortune, regardin talk schmidt gaev in march in abu dhabi:
in wan ov teh sharper exchanges ov teh afternoon, questioner challenged schmidt wif teh fact dat google iz collecting staggering amount ov informashun bout hoo we r, wut were thinkin, an even wer we r. “all dis informashun dat u has bout us: wer doez it go? hoo has acces 2 dat?” (google servrz an google employeez, undr careful rulez, schmidt sed.) “does dat scare evryone in dis room?” teh questioner askd, 2 applause. “would u prefr someone else?” schmidt shot bak – 2 laughter an even greatr applause. “is thar government dat u wud prefr 2 bees in charge ov dis?”
dat’s glib anzwr, but at least r government anzwrs 2 itz citizens thru elections. schmidt anzwrs 2 google shareholderz. an hoo’s 2 sai teh government won’t has acces, by wai ov subpoenas, 2 teh informashun google — an any othr cloud survis providers — store bout us? maybe teh queshun isnt hoo shud hold dis informashun, but rathr shud anyone hold dis informashun.
moar an moar, i git teh feelin dat if thar’s rift tween teh old “don’t bees evil” google an teh nu “let’s doez whatevr we wants” google, dat iz rift tween schmidt an larry/sergey — if not personally, then at least culturally within teh company. on teh wan side, teh larry/sergey google dat makez amazin cool tings — teh search engine, gmail, android. on teh othr, teh schmidt google dat, in itz efforts 2 serve adz as efficiently as posible, no longr seemz concerned wif teh traditional western concept ov personal privacy.
lot ov peeps seem surprisd by google’s alliance wif verizon on mobile netwerk neutrality. dat stance doesn’t fit wif mah view ov teh larry/sergey google. but it fitz mah idea ov teh schmidt google liek glove.
regardin teh idea dat apple cud bees preparing 2 launch cdma ifone 4 on verizon in january, df readr email suggestz thar r 2 aspects 2 teh story dat lead 2 skepticism. furst, teh timin. y launch in january? second: teh netwerk technology. y cdma? teh anzwrs, i finks, r relatd. wut follows iz pure speculashun on mah part.
verizon iz on teh cusp ov rollin out next-generashun 4g lte netwerk. wouldn’t it mak sense 4 apple 2 wait 4 lte an skip cdma altogether? dat depends on teh timin, i finks. if apple iz willin 2 wait anothr yer, or, if it simply takez anothr yer 2 come 2 termz wif verizon, then sure, maybe teh furst verizon ifone will go straight 2 lte. but if they wants 2 start sellin an ifone on verizon soon — meanin january — then cdma iz teh only practical solushun.
teh whole point ov expandin 2 verizon iz 2 gain markit share in teh u.s. iz bout high-volume ifone salez, coast 2 coast. hooj part ov teh reason thar’s so mutch demand 4 verizon ifone iz dat so lotz da peeps aren’t satisfied wif at&t’s coverage an quality. even if der lte rollout goez egsaktly as planned — hooj “if” — lte iz goin 2 bees niche technology in january, available in few dozen citiez. thar cud well bees tens ov million ov verizon customerz in dose citiez, but apple wud wants verizon ifone 2 bees aimed squarely at all verizon customerz. teh mesage: “evryone waitin 4 verizon ifone: her it iz.”
wan ting i has gathered frum df readr emails regardin hypothetical verizon ifone iz dat 4 all teh pres coverage bout at&t’s problemz in citiez liek nu york an san francisco, thar r also lot ov non-metro areas wer at&t doesn’t has any 3g coverage at all, but verizon doez. thar r lot ov potenshul ifone customerz in dose areas — an they’re not goin 2 has lte coverage in teh furst haf ov 2011.
cdma iz imperfect. yez, iz ded-end technology. yez, it doesn’t support simultaneous voice an data. yez, apple an at&t has, in teh past, made advertisements promotin teh ifone’s ability 2 use simultaneous voice an data ovar 3g. i jus dun c dis as hooj deal. i dun c any complaintz frum verizon android userz bout der inability 2 use voice an data simultaneously. tings wuz even worse wif teh original edge-only ifone. edge doesn’t support simultaneous voice an data, eithr, but wif edge, if u wuz usin data while call came in, teh call wud go 2 voice mail. i personally misd lot ov callz dat wai. wif cdma, an incoming call will interrupt data, an teh fone will ring. an, as wif teh original ifone, wi-fi werkz jus fine while u’re on call.
simultaneous voice an data iz nice-2-has, not must-has. verizon ifone in january wud bees targeted at customr base dat, by definishun, doesn’t considr simultaneous voice an data must-has feachur.1
teh original edge ifone iz also gud example ov apple’s relatively conservative pace ov adoption ov cell netwerk technology. at&t (née cingular) already offrd 3g survis when teh ifone wuz announcd. but coverage wasn’t widespread, an apple wuz concerned bout itz effect on battery life.
if teh ifone comez 2 verizon, soon enough thar will bees model dat supportz lte. but apple isnt goin 2 lead teh wai on dat.
which leads 2 teh queshun ov y launch cdma in january, rathr than, sai, waitin anothr 6 monthz an expandin 2 verizon on teh ifone’s regular nu-model-yer schedule. in short: 6 monthz iz long tiem in dis markit.
me imaginin scenario liek dis. release cdma ifone 4 on verizon in january. sell it 4 6 monthz, as verizon peer 2 teh $199/299 ifone 4 modelz at at&t. (maybe, though, verizon getz wan wif 64 gb? jus 2 add lil spice 2 teh debut?)
then, come june, unveil teh fifth-generashun ifone durin teh wwdc keynote. maybe dis fone werkz on all carriers. qualcomm has already producd chipsets dat support both cdma an gsm. or, maybe, teh ifone 5 will simply bees offrd in 2 flavors: gsm an cdma. eithr wai, though, it’d bees available on both verizon an at&t on dai wan. iz hard 2 imagine january verizon ifone followed by steve jobz on stage at wwdc in june showin nu fone dat only werkz on at&t. (even bettr: availability on all 4 major u.s. carriers.)
then, at dat point, teh ifone 3gs hitz end-ov-life, an teh ifone 4 slidez ovar an becomez teh low-end $99 ifone on both at&t an verizon. i.e., cdma ifone 4 cud only sit at teh top ov teh verizon line-up 4 6 monthz, but it cud has long life aftr dat as teh base model. (an, 6 month reign as teh top-ov-teh-line verizon ifone wud bees lot longr than dat ov any verizon android fone 2 date.)
bottom line: if apple’s goal iz 2 accelerate ifone markit share, particularly in competishun wif android, then they shud finalize deal wif verizon soon. an if they’re goin 2 doez it soon, dat meanz cdma, not lte.
update: derek powazek askz, on twittr, “why not decembr 4 teh holidais?” gud queshun. i doez not knoe teh anzwr, but heers wut i finks. sooner than january iz decembr, an decembr meanz teh holidais. but u can’t start sellin high-volume holidai productz in decembr. apple generally getz itz holidai productz on teh markit by octobr — hence teh annual september announcement eventz 4 nu ipodz. in theory, september announcement ov verizon ifone 4 wud werk. but, frum all evidence me aware ov, teh cdma ifone 4 jus isnt ready 4 dat. keep in mind dat todai, apple still can’t mak gsm ifone 4 unitz fast enough 2 meet demand, an still hasn’t shippd single retail white ifone 4. if it can’t bees ready by octobr, then it won’t come out til january. (also posible: perhapz apple’s exclusivity deal wif at&t expires decembr 31.)
an, hoo knowz, maybe cdma ifone on verizon wud bees able 2 doez simultaneous 3g voice an data — verizon iz supposedly werkin on support 4 voice ovar revision , technology dat supportz jus dat. ↩
let’s concede 4 teh moment dat amy thomson’s report 4 bloomberg bak on june 29 iz correct, an dat verizon iz goin 2 start sellin ifonez in january 2011. let’s furthr sai dat dis furst verizon ifone will bees cdma ifone 4 — pritee mutch teh same specz as teh ifone 4 we has nao, but wif cdma instead ov gsm. let’s sai an early january announcement, perhapz at ces, on sale at teh end ov teh month.
wut doez dat furst dai look liek? iz it goin 2 bees linez-around-teh-block situashun, liek teh last 4 summer ifone debuts on at&t? or iz it goin 2 bees un-sensational — on teh groundz dat teh sort ov peeps hoo’d wait 4 hourz in line 2 git an ifone as soon as posible already has wan on at&t?
me goin 2 sai it’d bees an event. i dun finks teh linez wud bees as long as they wuz dis summer 4 teh ifone 4 on at&t, but i finks thar r goin 2 bees linez — especially in placez wer at&t survis iz poor, liek nu york an san francisco.
i dun finks thar’s anyone hoo doesn’t finks verizon cud sell lot ov ifonez ovar teh course ov yer. but i finks they cud sell lot ov them rite away. apple sold 1.7 million ifone 4 unitz in teh furst 3 dais it wuz on sale. i finks they cud sell at least wan million on verizon ovar teh openin weekend. hoo knowz how lotz da loyal-2-verizon customerz r jus biding der tiem, waitin 4 an ifone, though? cud bees moar.
apple iz gud at keepin future productz seekret, an, if anythin, they’re gettin bettr at it. but teh weak spot in teh secrecy chain iz producshun. if u ned millions ov unitz, u ned millions ov componentz. dat takez tiem, an it necessarily involves supplierz. if thar r goin 2 bees millions ov cdma ifonez in january, were goin 2 start hearin bout signz ov producshun.
if anythin, apple has been 2 conservative wif itz producshun 4 ifonez an ipads dis yer. der online store iz quoting 7-10 dais 2 ship an ipad orderd todai, an 3 weekz 4 teh ifone 4. i finks they ned 2 bees aggressive 2 meet teh demand 4 hypothetical verizon-compatible ifone 4. january soundz far off given dat iz only august nao, but thar’s not dat mutch tiem left b4 producshun needz 2 start in earnest if they wants 2 come close 2 mettin demand.
i dun knoe anythin bout negotiashuns wif verizon, an i doubt anyone doez othr than teh highest-level executivez at both companiez. but i doez knoe dat engineerin-wise, teh wheels r turning on n92, teh cdma variant ov teh ifone 4. iz certainly not in producshun yet, an hasn’t reachd dvt status (device verification test — liek gray powell’s infamous stolen unit), but it iz, few lil birdies claim, at evt (engineerin verification test). dat’s wan step below dvt, which iz wan step below producshun. so iz rite bout wer ud finks it wud bees if it wuz scheduld 2 go on sale in january. teh cdma ifone iz no longr cold storage, keep-it-alive-jus-in-case-we-ned-it project.
dat doesn’t mak it sure ting. it iz essenshul 2 reiterate dat 4 all i knoe, it iz comin 2 markit but has nothin 2 doez wif verizon. gsm iz moar popular worldwide, but verizon iz not teh only major cdma carrir in teh wurld. maybe iz goin 2 sprint. maybe iz goin 2 south america, or asia. maybe iz all bout china telecom.
or maybe iz lotz da ov teh above, an dis iz apple’s next step toward maximizin markit share at teh expense ov highr per-unit profits frum exclusivity dealz. but combine teh signz dat teh cdma ifone 4 iz movin toward producshun wif businesweek’s report dat deal iz set tween verizon an apple, an, well, it all jus seemz 2 mak sense.
i has often quoted teh followin bit frum 2004 steven levy interview wif steve jobz (includin, last cud, in piece speculatin on — yez — verizon an teh ifone):
if dat’s so, then y iz teh mac markit share, even aftr apple’s resent revival, sputtering at measly 5 persent? jobz has theory bout dat, 2. once company devises great product, he sez, it has monopoly in dat realm, an concentrates les on innovation than protecting itz turf. “the mac usr interface wuz 10-yer monopoly,” sez jobz. “who endd up runnin teh company? salez guyz. at teh critical juncture in teh late ’80s, when they shud has gone 4 markit share, they went 4 profits. they made obscene profits 4 several yeers. an der productz became mediocre. an then der monopoly endd wif windowz 95. they behaved liek monopoly, an it came bak 2 bite them, which alwayz happenz.”
teh key bit: “at teh critical juncture […], when they shud has gone 4 markit share, they went 4 profits.” i finks dis encapsulates jobz’s filosofy since takin ovar apple in 1997. taek teh high end ov teh markit furst, establish brand an presence, then steadily start 2 expand.
if they’re at dat juncture wif teh ifone nao, expansion meanz cdma. an in teh u.s., it meanz verizon.
i dun knoe mutch moar than wut i wrote yesterdai regardin mark papermaster’s ouster frum apple in teh wake ov antennagate. i doez has few pointz 2 add, though.
several readerz askd whethr dis iz proof dat teh ifone 4 antenna iz, in fact, fundamentally flawd. (or as wan put it, “fucked”.) no. heers teh ifone 4 antenna, in eight werdz: iz gud design but has flaw. teh problem iz teh last 4 werdz.
doez apple has “make wan mistake an u’re fird” policy? no. but, if teh mistake iz hooj enough, sometimez yez. but i dun even knoe whethr teh ifone 4 antenna iz teh only ting dat led 2 papermaster’s sacking.1 ostensibly, papermaster wuz peer 2 bob mansfield in teh org chart; mansfield teh hed ov mac hardware engineerin, papermaster teh hed ov mobile device hardware engineerin. heers teh pr frum apple in novembr 2008, announcin papermaster’s hiring:
apple todai announcd dat mark papermaster iz joinin teh company as senior vice prezident ov devicez hardware engineerin, reportin 2 apple ceo steve jobz. papermaster, hoo comez 2 apple frum ibm, will lead apple’s ipod an ifone hardware engineerin teamz.
but iz mansfield, not papermaster, hoo appearz in apple’s 6-minute ifone 4 promoshunal video — an dat video wuz shot weekz (monthz?) b4 teh ifone 4 wuz unveild. teh othr executivez hoo appear in teh video: jonny ive, greg joswiak, an scott forstall. mansfield talkz bout teh retina display, teh advantagez ov itz highr resolushun, an teh engineerin behind it. then at teh end, mansfield comez bak 2 talk bout teh a4 sistem-on--chip — literally papermaster’s area ov expertise.
by teh org chart, dat shud has been papermaster in teh video. nao, i dun knoe — maybe papermaster wuz invited 2 appear in teh video but declined. perhapz he’s not comfortable in frunt ov camera. an mansfield iz gud. he’s not pritee, but he’s likable an has great voice — john goodman-esque screen presence. but maybe papermaster wuz already on teh outs, an mansfield wuz already overseeing teh engineerin ov tings liek teh retina display an teh a4.
teh gud aspects ov teh ifone 4 antenna:
it getz strongr signal in most situashuns, an iz able 2 hold callz in placez wer older ifonez couldn’t git any signal at all.
by goin external, it saves space inside, allowin teh ifone 4 2 bees physically smallr while at teh same tiem havin largr battery. dis antenna iz perhapz teh single biggest reason y teh ifone 4 getz best-ov-clas battery life.
it lookz great.
thar’s wan an only wan problem wif it:
i knoe lotz da peeps finks dat come next june (if not sooner), were goin 2 c steve jobz on stage unveiling an ifone 5 wif “revolutionary” nu antenna dat’s bak inside teh case.
i’d sai iz moar likely well c an ifone 5 wif an external antenna wif all teh same advantagez ov teh ifone 4 antenna, but without teh problem.
keep in mind dat apple’s product strategy iz riskier than dat ov othr companiez. they dun has line-up ov ifonez. they dun roll nu modelz out evry 3 or 4 monthz. they doez wan nu ifone per yer. iz high stakes, an high pressure.
wan last tidbit frum an informd source: teh bug on teh “touching it wrong” signal loss issue wuz fild 2 yeers ago. dis iz not problem they didnt catch, or caught 2 late. so, on teh wan hand, clearly teh fundamental antenna design predated papermaster’s tiem at teh company. but on teh othr hand, thar wuz plenty ov tiem 2 find solushun 2 teh problem. i.e., iz not dat apple shud not has usd an external antenna. iz dat it shud has been even bettr.
pure conjecture on mah part, but it cud bees dat papermaster iz bein held responsible 4 teh white ifone 4 debacle as well. iz got 2 bees somebody’s fault. ↩