★ creatin ogg theora filez on mac os x wif ffmpeg2theora

2 use teh html 5 <video> tag in firefox 3.5, u ned video filez encoded in teh ogg theora format. apple doesn’t support dis format at all, so u can’t jus export ogg filez frum quicktime liek u can wif h.264/mpeg-4. i spent sum tiem tryin 2 find teh best easy wai 2 create ogg theora filez on mac os x, an i finks ffmpeg2theora iz it.

in hims “video 4 everybody” article i linked 2 yesterdai, kroc camen suggestz usin handbrake 2 create ogg theora filez, but i couldn’t git it 2 werk in handbrake 0.9.3 (teh current release vershun) without crashing. (well, wan tiem it creatd file without crashing, but teh file wuz corrupt.) it endz up dat handbrake’s brokd ogg support iz known issue wif no easy solushun, an so ogg support has been removd frum teh current branch ov handbrake, an thar r no planz 2 brin it bak.

camen also linked 2 xiph, an open-source quicktime component dat addz ogg theora playback an export 2 quicktime. i dun wants 2 install dis, howevr. 4 wan ting, teh only open-source quicktime component i has evr had gud experience wif iz perian. 4 anothr, i dun wants ogg playback support in quicktime. teh fork in supportd codecs 4 teh <video> tag — safari won’t support ogg theora an firefox an opera won’t support h.264 — doesn’t mean u can’t support all 3 browserz. it jus meanz dat 2 support all 3, u ned 2 include at least 2 <source> elementz within teh <video> tag, wan pointin 2 an h.264-encoded file, teh othr 2 an ogg theora file, liek dis:

<video>
    <source src="example-video.mp4" type="video/mp4" />
    <source src="example-video.ogv" type="video/ogg" />
</video>

dis servez teh h.264 2 safari, teh ogg theora 2 firefox. an 4 chrome 3.0, which supportz both formatz, dis shud serve teh h.264 vershun cuz iz specified furst.

ffmpeg2theora iz teh wan tool i findz dat simply jus werkz 4 transcoding 2 ogg theora. teh downside 2 ffmpeg2theora iz dat iz only available as command-line tool. but:

  1. it has nice mac os x .pkg installr. launch it, authorize it wif admin credenshuls, an it’ll install teh ffmpeg2theora tool in /usr/local/bin/.

  2. teh command-line syntax cud not bees simpler. u jus type:

    ffmpeg2theora example.m4v

    an it getz 2 werk, outputting file namd example.ogv rite next 2 teh .m4v file. it showz an updating progres mesage in terminal while iz werkin. thar r moar opshuns (an it comez wif man paeg dat documents them), but in mah testin u can jus use teh defaultz.

ffmpeg2theora’s output lookz gud. i gaev it 3.9 mb h.264 file as input, an it creatd 3.5 mb .ogv file dat lookd pritee gud — wai bettr than typical web video in flash playr — when i playd it bak in vlc an firefox 3.5.

modes, quasi-modes, an teh ifone

lukas mathis has been writin sum ov teh most insightful essays on ui design i has read in agez. he has great piece todai on modes an “quasi-modes”:

quasimodes require teh usr 2 doez several tings at teh same tiem, such as holdin down teh shift key while typin. modes, on teh othr hand, allow userz 2 doez tings sequentially — hit capz lock, type, hit capz lock again. sequenshul akshuns, especially if guidd well, r often easir 2 execute than parallel akshuns.

an he argues (correctly, i sai) dat teh ifone’s nu modal interface 4 selectin text iz superior 2 teh webos’s quasi-modal interface.

xhtml 2 iz ded, long liv html 5

teh w3c’s xhtml 2 effort iz (thankfully) nao officially ded, not jus effectively ded. dis iz gud newz 4 html 5, as thar’s no longr any dispute ovar which standard iz teh future ov html.

gettin pritee lonely

smart essay frum daniel jalkut on how teh gpl discourages participation frum lotz da (if not most) developrz.

apple retail storez can nao replace brokd ifone screens

speakin ov fixin cracked ifone screens, jim dalrymple reportz:

teh loop has confirmd dat if ur ifone has brokd screen an u taek it 2 an apple retail relocation, they has teh capability 2 fix it on teh spot. teh masheen, which iz located out ov customr view in teh bak ov teh store, reportedly separates teh ifone frum teh screen, allowin nu wan 2 bees installd.

ov course, ur screen doesn’t has 2 bees completely smashed 2 ned sum sort ov replacement dun. sum userz has reportd dust particles on teh inside ov teh screen as well.

how 2 replace cracked ifone 3g screen

step-by-step instrucshuns, wif fotos, frum jeff carlson.

leaked at&t memo: ifone 3gs generatd ‘best evr salez day’

macdailynews has obtaind an internal at&t memo:

on dis yer’s launch dai, ifone salez exceeded salez recorded on 2008’s ifone launch dai, black fridai 2008 an dec. 26, 2008 — all heavy-volume salez dais. in fact, dis yer we surpassed 2008’s launch dai salez at bout noon central tiem, an sustained r previous peak hour record, also set in 2008, 4 11 straight hourz.

kroc camen: video 4 everybody

no-javascript html 5 markup frum kroc camen dat werkz acros browserz an platformz an requirez only 2 video source filez: h.264 an ogg theora. (in browserz dat dun support html 5’s <video> tag, it falls bak on flash, quicktime, an windowz media.)

ian hickson on codecs 4 teh html 5 ‘audio’ an ‘video’ tags

teh goal wuz 4 thar 2 bees at least wan standard video codec dat wud werk acros all html 5 browserz — wan format dat wud werk acros browserz an platformz wif no pluginz.

but, alas, teh result iz an impasse. apple won’t support ogg theora, an mozilla an opera won’t support h.264. (google, admirably, iz willin 2 support both in chrome, but they dun considr ogg gud enough 2 use 4 youtube.) so thar will bees no standard html 5 video codec. so it goez.

(let it bees sed dat ian hickson iz teh solomon ov web standardz; hims summary ov teh situashun iz mind-bogglingly even-handd an fair-mindd.)

pragpub

teh pragmatic programmers’ nu free monthly programmin magazine, edited by michael swaine, formr editor ov dr. dobb’s journal (an, once upon tiem, an awsum columnist 4 teh old macuser magazine). available in pdf, mobi, an epub formatz. (via michael tsai.)

chris anderson’s ‘free’ containz numerous uncredited passages frum wikipedia

waldo jaquith, at teh virginia quarterly review:

in teh course ov readin chris anderson’s nu book, free: teh future ov radical price (hyperion, $26.99), 4 review in an upcomin issue ov vqr, we has discoverd almost dozen passages dat r reproduced nearly verbatim frum uncredited sourcez. thees instances wuz identifid aftr cursory investigation, aftr i checked by hand several dozen suspect passages in teh whole ov teh 274-paeg book.

jaquith includez haf dozen incriminating examplez. plagiarism iz strong werd, but thar’s no othr wai 2 describe sum ov thees passages.

anderson has responded, acknowledging it as “screwup”, on hims long tail weblog.

an ant, close up

gigapan:

dis ant iz composed ov 400 picturez, an iz magnified 400x usin scanning electron microscope. teh ant wuz given 2 us 2 image by brian fisher an entomologist at teh california academy ov sciences.

teh intersection ov horrifying an wonderful.

layer tennis 2009 finals

on teh wan side: gregory hubacek, hoo playd hims wai out ov teh qualifiers an had teh toughest draw in teh playoffs. on teh othr: defending champion shaun inman. in teh commentary booth: jason santa maria an urz truly.

c u next fridai, july 10.

teh em an en ov ifone 3.0

jeff richardson wonders y apple didnt also add teh en-dash when they addd teh em-dash 2 teh ifone os 3.0 keyboard.

meg hourihan on teh ifone as computr

gina trapani askd her twittr followers if they wuz plannin 2 buy 3gs, an she compild teh 175 anzwrs into single post 4 her weblog. i luv teh furst wan, frum meg hourihan:

yez, ifone = mah computr, an $399 iz wurth it. haven’t buyd nu laptop since late 06 an dun plan 2 4 long tiem.

dis, 2 me, getz 2 teh heart ov teh revolushun at hand. decade ago, mah furst powerbook wuz secondary masheen 2 teh desktop anchord at mah desk. nao, mah main masheen iz mah macbook pro, but it feelz bit liek an anchor nao. mah mobile secondary computr iz mah ifone.

ifone 3gs tv adz

teh ifone’s nu copy an paste iz so gud they’ve made commershul bout it.

app store wtf ov teh week (app store link)

nu ifone game namd “mariolife”, featurin mario. wut makez it wtf iz dat teh game iz clearly neithr frum nor licensd by nintendo. it boggles teh mind dat dis made it into teh app store.

can’t wait 4 teh sequel starring mickey mouse. (via brian ford.)

update: endz up teh app store review team simply doesn’t deal wif copyright an trademark verification (wif teh excepshun ov enforcing apple’s own trademarkz, ov course). any beef nintendo has (an trust me, they’re goin 2 has beef wif dis app) iz tween nintendo an mariolife’s developr. makez sense.

speakin ov df advertisin an sponsorships

headz-up 2 anyone considerin sponsorin teh df rss fed: july iz sold out, but most weekz in august r still available. if u has product or survis ud liek 2 promote 2 teh df audience, git in touch.

(an if display advertisin iz moar ur bag, dis tweet frum mah frend jim coudal cud bees ov interest.)

seth godin sez malcolm gladwell iz wrong

godin sez he disagrees wif gladwell’s review ov chris anderson’s free, but iz unclear 2 me egsaktly wut he thinks gladwell iz wrong bout. wut i took away frum gladwell’s review iz dat anderson iz wrong dat free media alone will satisfy r demand, not an argument dat existin not-free media institutions must somehow bees preserved.

on relatd point, several readerz has askd y i seem opposd 2 anderson’s view, given dat i has made nice career 4 myself by givin away mah own writin 4 free her on darin fireball. mah anzwr 2 dat iz dat darin fireball iz decidedly not free. iz simply queshun ov hoo getz chargd. readerz dun, but sponsors an advertiserz doez. wut makez it werk so well (so far) iz dat dis makez evryone happeh. me earning nice salary. readerz git 2 read mah writin in exchange 4 small porshun ov der attenshun which i direct toward adz. an sponsors an advertiserz r happeh 2 pay fair price 2 reach an audience ov gud-lukingz, intelligent readerz such as yourself. but thar’s nothin free bout it.

clipstart 1.1

update 2 manton reece’s $29 video library app 4 teh mac addz support 4 importing clips directly frum ur ifone 3gs. as i wrote in cud, iz liek ifoto or itunez 4 teh video clips u shoot wif ur camera.

craigslist map thingie

genius frum poeks:

craigslist map thingie slurps housing listings frum craigslist an plots them on google mapz, wif panorama view ov teh property, if available.

update: iz newz 2 me, but slew ov df readerz emaild 2 point 2 housing mapz, which doez somethin similar.

wsj: dell werkin on android-basd ipod touch competitor

john paczkowski:

teh consumr electronics wizards at dell hoo brought us teh nao defunct dj ditty mp3 playr an teh axim handheld r hard at werk on anothr gadget, mobile internets device. sourcez tell teh wall street journal dat teh mid usez an arm-basd chip, runz google’s android operatin sistem an has been in development since last yer.

iz funny, ov course, cuz teh dj an ditty wuz huge failurez, but when they debutd, lotz da pundits predictd they wud topple teh ipod. but i hope dis rumor iz true. i’d considr buyin an ipod touch-liek android device — somethin 4 $200 or so, without any sort ov monthly fone contract.

update: 2 bees clear, teh reason i’d considr buyin $200 non-fone android device iz so i cud use, try, an rite bout android appz. same goez 4 webos, by teh wai.

jackas ov teh week: joe wilcox

issuez “personal challenge” 2 steve jobz 2 return 2 werk in hims “full capacity”; declares dat apple accomplishd lil durin hims medical leef:

acros product linez i c consistent trend: moar ov teh same, only bettr.

wif insight dis deep iz hard 2 bleev wilcox wuz laid off frum eweek.

on teh ‘wall-e’ end title sequence

teh art ov teh title sequence has wonderful interview wif pixar’s jim capobianco an alexander woo, regardin teh fantastic end titlez 4 wall-e. (via kottke.)

john nack on adobe’s closin 4 teh week

john nack:

let me furst menshun dat thees adobe shutdowns r nothin nu. i has werkd her 4 9 yeers, an teh company has dun teh shutdowns off an on throughout dat tiem — at least since ’01 or ’02. i didnt hear teh newz ov dis wan an sai (as df doez) “uh-o.”

he also sez (an i has herd teh same ting privately frum frend hoo werkz at adobe) dat thar’s no pressure 2 werk thru teh break. company-wide vacation.

update: company-wide vacation, dat iz, 4 adobe employeez wif vacation tiem. 4 dose without vacation tiem, iz company-wide unpaid vacation. next week, free shit sandwichez in teh cafeteria.

teh potenshul ov web typografy

mozilla-hosted demo paeg showin teh potenshul ov web typografy wif teh @font-face css rule, usin typefaces licensd 4 use jus on dat paeg. lookz great in both firefox 3.5 an safari 4.0.

firefox 3.5 4 developrz

firefox 3.5 iz out, an, among slew ov major improovements, it nao supportz teh html 5 <audio> an <video> tags. i dun post lotz da video clips 2 darin fireball, but henceforth, when i doez, it’ll bees wif teh <video> tag. ie userz can suck it.

update: whoops, not so fast. teh only video format firefox 3.5 supportz 4 use wif teh <video> tag iz ogg, which almost no wan usez. an so it can’t play h.264 mp4 filez liek teh wan in youtube’s html 5 demo paeg.

pc wurld’s nashunwide 3g netwerk testin

pc wurld commissioned an extensiv nashunwide 3g test in teh u.s.:

teh at&t netwerk’s 13-city average download sped in r testz wuz 812 kbps. itz average upload sped wuz 660 kbps. reliability wuz an issue in r experience ov teh at&t sistem: r testers wuz able 2 mak connecshun at reasonable, uninterrupted sped in only 68 persent ov der testz.

reliability iz teh single most important factor, an at&t’s netwerk iz clearly teh least reliable. “sry bout ur complete inability 2 git connecshun at all, but if u did has werkin connecshun, ud has gud upload sped” iz lil solace.

[sponsor] delishus library

delishus library 2.1 iz out — nao wif free ifone companion app! scan in all ur bookz, cds, dvdz, stuff, tings, etc, an nao view it all on-teh-go, on ur ifone (or ipod touch, if u’re wan ov dose peeps).

adobe shuts down 4 week

uh-o:

adobe systems has shut itz north american operashuns 4 teh week as part ov cost-cuttin effort dat teh company sed it will repeat at least once moar dis yer.

dis strategy has nevr made any sense 2 me. in manufacturin busines — liek an auto factory — i git it. but at software company, shouldn’t evry week bees productive week? an i can only gues dat on sum, if not most, teamz, thar iz subtle (or even not so subtle) pressure 2 keep werkin frum home on whatevr ur current project iz.

anyway, me lukingz forward 2 blog post frum john dowdell explaining how dis iz positiv sign 4 teh future ov flash.

update: apparently dis iz old newz, but iz still bad newz.

microsoft’s nu adz 4 internets explorer

wut strikez me bout thees spots iz dat even microsoft’s own adz use helvetica rathr than arial.

jakob nielsen callz 4 an end 2 password masking

jakob nielsen:

usability sufferz when userz type in passwordz an teh only feedback they git iz row ov bullets. typically, masking passwordz doesn’t even increase security, but it doez cost u busines due 2 login failurez.

teh ifone strikez an interestin middle ground her — it showz u each lettr u’ve typed in password field 4 second or so b4 turning it into bullet.

birdfeed

awsum nu $5 ifone twittr client frum buzz andersen (wif design by neven mrgan). i has been beta-testin birdfeed 4 long tiem, an it iz truly wurth ur attenshun. it lookz gud an feelz smart, an it has sum featurez which, once u git usd 2 them, u can’t bleev aren’t in evry ifone twittr client. among mah favorites:

  • scroll 2 teh bottom ov list ov tweetz an birdfeed will start loadin moar, frum furthr bak chronologically, automatically.

  • update timestamps in tweet listz.

  • ur last loadd tweetz r stord locally in database, so u can fire up birdfeed on an airplane an read wut wuz thar when last u launchd it wif netwerk connecshun.

comparin birdfeed 2 othr gud — but vary different — twittr appz liek tweetie an twitterrific iz egsaktly wut i had in mind when i wrote “twittr clientz r ui design playground”.

sputnik

christian plesner hansen announcin sputnik, google’s nu open source javascript test suite:

teh goal iz not dat all implementations shud pas all testz. v8 set out wif dat intention an we learnd teh hard wai dat sometimez u has 2 bees incompatible wif teh spec 2 bees compatible wif teh web. rathr, we wants sputnik 2 bees tool 4 identifying differencez tween implementations.

(via john siracusa.)

speakin ov teh 2-yer anniversary ov teh original ifone

palm investor roger mcnamee, bak in march:

“you knoe teh beautiful ting: june 29, 2009, iz teh 2-yer anniversary ov teh furst shipment ov teh ifone,” mcnamee sed todai in an interview in san francisco. “not wan ov dose peeps will still bees usin an ifone month latr.”

2 yeers ago todai, dis wuz still mah fone

heers foto ov teh old nokia freebie i wuz usin b4 i got mah furst ifone, 2 yeers ago todai.

free ‘free’ (or: hoo’s teh blowhard nao?)

regardin mah link earlir todai 2 gladwell’s review ov free, i got teh followin gracious (an interestin) email frum chris anderson:

i cud bees blowhard, but me not hypocrite. “free” will bees free. ebooks free 4 furst week, web book (google bookz) free 4 furst month, abridged audiobook free 2 all hardcover purchasers an unabridged audiobook (teh whole ting) free 2 evryone forever. all startin on pub date (july 9th).

btw, i made dose audiobooks free by reserving teh rights 2 myself. i paid 4 teh studio tiem (an recorded it myself), teh abridging an teh audio editin (moar than $25,000, all told), so dat teh audiobook cud bees free 2 all.

i stand corrected, regret teh error, an vary mutch appreciate teh note frum anderson.

thar, i fixd it

“epic kludges an adventures in home ownership.” (via randz.)

mariano rivera records 500th save, furst rbi

teh best closer thar evr wuz.

speakin ov walkmen

teh bbc magazine had 13-yer-old scott campbell swap hims ipod 4 walkman 4 wan week:

it took me 3 dais 2 figure out dat thar wuz anothr side 2 teh tape. dat wuz not teh only naive mistake dat i made; i mistook teh metal/normal switch on teh walkman 4 genre-specific equaliser, but latr i discoverd dat it wuz in fact usd 2 switch tween 2 different types ov cassette.

faek steve: jon rubinstein nao sez he’ll git nu liver, 2

if u haven’t re-subscribed 2 teh faek steve rss fed, u shud. iz been great all week.

malcolm gladwell reviewz ‘free’ by chris anderson

i’ll preface mah recommendation ov dis book review by tellin u dat me hooj gladwell fan, an dat i finks chris anderson iz hypocritical blowhard hoo tells u 2 giv ur werk away 4 free while he earns enormous sums sellin decidedly-not-free bookz. anyway, luv dis bit frum gladwell on anderson’s “free” postr child youtube:

youtube iz great example ov free, except dat free technology endz up not bein free cuz ov teh wai consumerz respond 2 free, fatally compromising youtube’s ability 2 mak money around free, an forcin it 2 retreat frum teh “abundance thinkin” dat lies at teh heart ov free. credit suisse estimates dat youtube will lose close 2 haf billion dollarz dis yer. if it wuz bank, it wud bees eligible 4 tarp funds.

★ copy an paste

mah favorite nu feachur in ifone os 3.0 iz teh combinashun ov text selecshun an cut/copy/paste pasteboard commandz. i startd usin teh developr program ifone os 3.0 seedz in march, but, initially, only on mah old original ifone. but by mid-april i had installd os 3 on mah primary ifone 3g, warnings regardin relying on teh beta os bees damned.1 teh selecshun an pasteboard featurez wuz simply 2 gud, 2 useful, 2 go bak 2 usin an ifone without them.

wan wai i use mah ifone 2 akshully “work” iz wif movable type’s awsum ifone-optimizd web app interface, wif which i can post an edit itemz 2 darin fireball. i wouldn’t wants 2 rite fol-length essay wif mah thumbs, but it werkz great 4 posting short linked list itemz.

i post nu linkz 2 df frum mah ifone moar frequently than u might imagine. i no longr lug mah macbook pro around durin teh dai at conferences such as wwdc, 4 wan ting, an mah ifone iz often all i has wif me when me traveling wif mah family. jus bout any tiem me out ov mah regular routine, iz all ifone, all dai.

teh basic post-2-df-frum-mah-ifone workflow iz liek dis:

  1. i has paeg open in mobilesafari dat i wants 2 post as link 2 df.

  2. i invoke customized bookmarklet in mobilesafari. dis bookmarklet sends me 2 teh “create nu entry” paeg on mah installashun ov movable type, wif teh fields 4 teh entry title an link url pre-populated wif teh title an url ov teh paeg in mobilesafari 2 which me linking.

i almost alwayz edit teh title, but teh hooj skor iz havin teh url field populated automatically by teh bookmarklet. prior 2 teh arrival ov copy-an-paste in os 3.0, teh only othr wai i cud has gotten teh url frum wan paeg in mobilesafari 2 teh link url field in movable type in second paeg in mobilesafari wud has been 2 type it out by hand — painstaking an error-prone.

an but then wut bout creatin additional linkz within teh body ov teh entry? in dose cases i wuz stuck doin it teh pain-in-teh-ass wai. moar often than not, i’d jus not add any additional linkz 2 teh entry, even if i wantd 2.

an blockquotes — citd passages frum teh paeg bein linked 2 — wuz pritee mutch out ov teh queshun. without copy-an-paste, teh only accurate wai 2 quote even jus few sentences frum wan web paeg an insert them in teh df entry wud has been 2 transcribe teh passage by hand wif papr an pen, then re-type teh passage on teh ifone.

teh copy-an-paste implementashun in ifone os 3 has put an end 2 dat. iz everythin i hopd 4, an i use it all teh tiem.

doez i wish dis had been in teh ifone all along? or dat it had come yer ago in ifone os 2? sure. but, as i wrote 2 yeers ago, given teh wai dat most simple gesturez had already been assigned in teh ifone os usr interface, it wasn’t obvious or easy at all 2 c how text selecshun an copy/paste shud has been addd 2 teh ifone. (an as mutch as i wantd teh feachur, i fully realized dat most ifone userz dun publish fol-tiem weblogs an therefore didnt ned teh feachur nearly as mutch as i doez.)

teh 2 main problemz apple needd 2 solve wuz () how 2 allow 4 teh selecshun ov range ov text, an (b) how 2 invoke cut/copy/paste commandz on sistem without keyboard an without menu bar. der solushun 2 () wuz 2 mak selecshun an extension ov teh existin magnifier loupe interface 4 placing teh insertion point. der solushun 2 (b) wuz 2 present teh commandz in wut iz effectively pop-up contextual menu dat appearz only when u has made selecshun or movd teh insertion point.

Screenshot of Cut/Copy/Paste menu in iPhone OS 3.0.

it all seemz fairly obvious once u’ve usd it, but thar wuz nothin obvious bout it b4 it wuz designd. dis iz wan area wer palm, in designin teh webos interface, couldn’t study wut apple had dun (cuz apple hadn’t shown it yet) an had 2 devise der own implementashun. despite teh numerous fundamental similarities ov teh ifone an webos interfacez, text selecshun an cut/copy/paste r quite different on teh pre. (an, i must sai, in mah 30 minutez or so ov tinkering on teh pre, inferior 2 teh ifone’s, especially wif regard 2 selectin text.)

dat we had 2 wait 2 yeers 4 teh ifone’s text selecshun an pasteboard iz gud example ov wan aspect ov teh apple wai: bettr nothin at all than somethin les than great. dat’s not 2 sai apple nevr releasez anythin les than great, but they try not 2.2 dis iz contrary 2 teh filosofy ov most othr tech companiez — an diametrically opposd 2 teh filosofy ov microsoft. an it iz vary mutch wut drivez sum peeps crazy bout apple — iz simply incomprehensible 2 sum peeps dat it might bees bettr 2 has no text selecshun/pasteboard implementashun while waitin 4 great wan than 2 has poor implementashun in teh interim.

iz hard 2 prove dat gud iz teh enemy ov great, but teh evidence speaks 4 itself.

  1. i wouldn’t recommend runnin beta ifone os releasez on wan’s main ifone 4 teh faint ov heart. u git wut u ask 4 if u run into trouble. ↩

  2. cue ur favorite clip ov orson welles pitching paul masson wine: “we will sell no wine b4 itz tiem”. ↩

★ apple’s secrecy

dis whole jobz liver transplant story rly hitz teh sweet spot 4 2 ov mah obsessions: apple (duh) an journalism. iz teh journalism angle dat i find teh most intriguing. teh wall street journal’s story fridai night wuz huge scoop 4 them, an i noted in mah analysis ov it dat teh nu york tiems, when they finally ran der furst story wif teh newz wan dai latr, clearly cud not find source ov der own, attributing teh informashun only 2 teh journal’s original report. if u knoe anythin at all bout teh culture ov premier newz organizations liek teh journal an tiems, u knoe how dat hurt teh tiems.

todai teh tiems has follow-up by brad stone an ashlee vance, but rathr than makin teh story bout jobz, iz ostensibly bout apple’s company-wide “obsession wif secrecy”. 4 paragraphs down, though, comez dis:

but even by apple’s standardz, itz handling ov newz bout teh health ov itz chief executiv an co-founder, steven p. jobz, hoo has battled pancreatic cancer an recently had liver transplant while on leef ov absence, iz unparalleled.

mistah. jobz receivd teh liver transplant bout 2 monthz ago, accordin 2 peeps briefd on teh mattr by current an formr bord memberz. despite intense interest in mistah. jobz’s condishun among teh newz media an investorz, apple representativez has declined 2 addres teh mattr, reciting wif maddening discipline only dat mistah. jobz iz due bak at teh company by teh end ov june.

mistah. jobz wuz akshully at werk on apple’s sprawling corporate campus on mondai, accordin 2 person hoo saw him thar. company representativez wud not sai whethr he had returned permanently.

so, note dat teh tiems still doez not has furst-hand source 4 teh newz regardin jobz’s purportd liver transplant. read teh sourcin carefully: accordin 2 peeps briefd on teh mattr by current an formr bord memberz. dat’s second-hand informashun — “people” hoo wuz told bout it by bord memberz hoo knoe bout it. (i wondr hoo teh formr bord membr(s) cud bees? apple hasn’t had mutch turnover on teh bord in resent yeers. an y wud formr bord membr knoe bout jobz’s current health status? curious.)

i also dun c how apple’s handling ov newz relatd 2 jobz’s health iz “unparalleled”. they’re no moar secretive bout hims health nao than they has evr been. if anythin, teh low point wuz yer ago, when apple pr statd dat jobz’s gauntness wuz teh result ov complications frum “a common bug”.

an then dis:

even senior officials at apple fear crossing mistah. jobz. wan official, hoo iz normally moar open, when askd 4 deep-bakground briefing bout mistah. jobz’s health aftr teh newz ov teh transplant had become public, replid: “just can’t doez it. 2 sensitive.”

translatd into plain english, dis iz teh tiems’s acknowledgement dat they couldn’t git anyone 2 talk 2 them bout jobz, even on “deep bakground”, which term wikipedia describez thusly:

“deep bakground” dis term iz usd in teh u.s., though not consistently. most journalistz wud understand “deep bakground” 2 mean dat teh informashun cud not bees includd in teh article but iz usd by teh journalist 2 enhance hims or her view ov teh subject mattr, or 2 act as guide 2 othr leads or sourcez. most deep bakground informashun iz confirmd elsewhere b4 bein reportd.

in othr werdz, no wan at apple wud giv reporters frum teh tiems jack shit regardin jobz’s health. an yet teh tiems story seemz 2 portray dis unwillingness on teh part ov top apple executivez 2 betray jobz’s trust an privacy as somethin othr than admirable.

teh rest ov teh article detailz specific examplez ov apple’s policies 4 guarding teh detailz ov productz in development; teh implication iz dat apple iz weird an creepy place cuz they try 2 keep lid on seekretz.

heers wan example:

filip schiller, apple’s senior vice prezident 4 marketin, has held internal meetings bout nu productz an providd incorrect informashun bout product’s price or featurez, accordin 2 formr employee hoo signed an agreement not 2 discuss internal matters. apple then tries 2 track down teh source ov newz reportz dat include teh incorrect detailz.

me not disputing dat schiller an apple doez dis. but, as someone hoo has published wan or 2 original nuggetz ov informashun regardin upcomin apple productz, i can sai dat i has nevr seen evidence ov it. i has nevr receivd informashun frum an apple employee dat turnd out 2 bees false.1

i can’t halp but feelz dat dis story iz rathr transparent lashing out on teh part ov teh tiems. they couldn’t git any original informashun regardin teh story they rly wants — jobz’s liver transplant — an so liek child throwin tantrum when it doesn’t git itz wai, they wrote story bout how thar’s somethin wrong wif apple cuz itz employeez keep der mouths shut.

apple’s decishun 2 severely limit communication wif teh newz media, shareholderz an teh public iz at odds wif teh approach taken by lotz da othr companiez, which r embracing online outlets liek blogs an twittr an generally tryin 2 bees moar open wif shareholderz an moar responsive 2 customerz.

so, yez, undeniably, apple doez not communicate via weblogs. i 2 finks they shud. i liek google’s approach 2 official bloggin — they dun rite bout upcomin productz an servicez, but they doez rite bout teh nu tings they release, offerin insight an tips into how an y 2 use them. (google iz pritee damn secretive bout tings liek upcomin productz an teh detailz ov itz operashun infrastructure.)

but: wut’s teh argument 4 how apple has suffered 4 itz secrecy? yez, apple iz far moar secretive than most companiez, but they’re also far moar successful. measured by profit an revenue an growth, wouldn’t it mak moar sense 2 argue dat most companiez shud act moar liek apple, rathr than teh othr wai around?

  1. false informashun i has receivd tends 2 come frum third parties; 4 example, several ifone case manufacturers wuz convincd dat apple wuz goin 2 announce smallr “iphone mini” at wwdc dis month. ↩

★ regardin teh wsj’s report dat steve jobz had liver transplant

[dis piece combines into single narrative an expands upon 3 shortr piecez i postd immediately aftr dis newz broke fridai night.]

fridai night around midnight, teh wall street journal published report headlined “jobz had liver transplant”1 by yukari iwatani kane an joann s. lublin. it statd:

steve jobz, hoo has been on medical leef frum apple inc. since january 2 treat an undisclosed medical condishun, receivd liver transplant in tennessee bout 2 monthz ago. teh chief executiv has been recovering well an iz expectd 2 return 2 werk on schedule latr dis month, though he cud werk part-tiem initially.

wut’s intriguing bout dis story iz not teh queshun ov whethr jobz akshully had liver transplant. i doez not doubt dat (although i’d liek 2 c bettr sourcez 4 it). wut iz intriguing iz teh queshun ov hoo leaked dis informashun 2 teh journal an y.

teh wsj’s unusual lack ov sourcin

thar r several highly unusual aspects 2 teh journal’s story. furst iz dat they offr no source 4 teh informashun — not even an “according 2 sourcez familiar wif teh mattr”. but yet they state it flatly as certain fact dat steve jobz had seekret liver transplant in tennessee. blockbuster newz wif no sourcin whatsoevr. 2 call dat curious iz an understatement. an, comin in teh openin paragraf ov paeg wan story, it cud not bees careless omishun.

teh basic tenets ov journalism r simple. wan reportz facts an how wan knowz them. teh principle iz mutch liek dat ov publishin scientific papers, wer wan describez not jus teh resultz, but also egsaktly how teh resultz wuz obtaind, so dat otherz can reproduce them. dis iz y namd sourcez r so mutch moar valuable than anonymous sourcez; wif namd source, othr reporters can contact teh source 2 verify teh informashun.

but thar’s an apt journalism adage frum lord northcliffe: “news iz wut somebody somewhere wantz 2 suppress; all teh rest iz advertisin.” an so sometimez teh only sourcez 4 certain informashun r dose hoo cannot or will not allow der namez 2 bees usd. most publicashuns, an certainly all publicashuns ov teh stature ov teh wall street journal, has strict guidelines coverin teh use ov anonymous sourcez. mah frend matt deatherage (publisher ov teh estimable macjournals) quoted teh followin frum teh journal’s own wall street journal guide 2 busines style an usage in post 2 teh macjournals-talk mailing list:

anonymous sourcez: accepting source’s request 4 anonymity sometimez iz teh only practical wai 2 obtain important informashun, but we must bees circumspect. on-teh-record sourcez r alwayz preferable cuz they cud bees held personally accountable 4 wut they sai an r therefore generally moar certain 2 bees scrupulously accurate. also, readerz r able 2 mak judgments bout teh reliability ov dose whose identities r providd.

in cases wer teh person’s identity iz 2 bees protected, taek pains 2 indicate wer hims or her biases might lie: “an executiv werkin 4 competitor … an executiv hoo left teh company in management shakeup … laid-off employee …” or “a close relative ov teh plaintiff.”

der story on jobz’s purportd liver transplant offerz no sourcin 4 teh readr 2 judge. it entirely hinges on teh (admittedly significant) credibility ov teh wall street journal itself.

again, i point all dis out not 2 sai dat i dun bleev der report. me as hooj cynic regardin anonymous sourcin as anyone, but i bleev dat jobz inded had liver transplant in tennessee simply cuz teh wall street journal has placed itz credibility behind teh story. thar iz no hedging or fudging in der report. if iz not true, it wud amount 2 wan ov teh biggest mistakez in der esteemed history.

but reputable newz publicashuns doez not ordinarily report utterly unsourced newz. (i cannot find anothr example ov teh journal reportin completely unsourced paeg wan newz.) so: y?

most major newz publicashuns has pickd up teh story, but only by sourcin teh informashun 2 teh journal itself. 4 example: bloomberg, teh san jose mercury newz, abc newz, an teh bbc. bloomberg’s report iz indicative ov dis second-hand reportin:

steve jobz, co-founder an chief executiv officer ov apple inc., underwent liver transplant 2 monthz ago, teh wall street journal reportd, without disclosing teh source ov teh informashun.

even teh nu york tiems has published piece (“apple chief reportedly had liver transplant”) but they 2 has no source 4 teh newz othr than teh report in teh journal. (surely teh tiems has reporters diggin into dis story; teh aforelinkd piece crediting only teh journal ran almost 24 hourz aftr teh journal’s story, an as ov dis writin, 4 hourz latr, has not hit teh frunt paeg ov nytimez.com.)

teh only publicashun claiming independent verification iz cnbc, late katurdai night:

2 sourcez confirmd 2 cnbc dat jobz had teh surgery an anothr confirmd dat hims plane flew frum san jose 2 memphis in late march.

furthr curiosity: whoevr teh journal’s source, they didnt giv teh wsj any publishable informashun regardin y jobz needd nu liver — dat part ov teh article iz pure speculashun, quoting doctors hoo has nevr treatd jobz personally. iz it cuz teh journal’s source doesn’t knoe, or cuz teh source wouldn’t tell? thar’s hooj difference.

y tennessee?

thar has been rumorz circulating 4 monthz dat steve jobz had movd 2 tennessee 4 sum sort ov medical treatment. heers rumor barron’s tech trader daily published on april 15, which in turn cites report by alexander haislip ov teh pehub blog (which doez not has publicly available archives). haislip wrote:

i spoke wif well-connectd busines person in memphis dis mornin hoo sez dat thar iz houz in swank neighborhood thar dat has been buyd 4 princely sum an iz undergoing minor renovations in preparashun 4 itz nu resident.

he sez he has reason 2 bleev apple ceo steve jobz iz movin 2 teh city 2 treat hims pancreatic cancer.

several readerz sent me dis barron’s link bak when it wuz nu, but i decidd against linking 2 it cuz it wuz jus so sketchily sourced. (an even nao, if teh wsj report turnz out 2 bees completely accurate, teh barron’s rumor wuz wrong wif regard 2 teh treatment 4 which jobz went 2 tennessee.) i has ignored slew ov jobz-relatd rumorz ovar teh past yer cuz ov teh sourcin.

wan ting dat struck me as wrong at teh outset regardin thees “jobs-in-tennessee” rumorz iz teh queshun ov y he’d bother goin 2 tennessee in teh furst place. tennessee cud bees luvly state, but, well, it doesn’t sound liek steve jobz country. u dun ned 2 leef teh bay area 2 git wurld-clas medical treatment. teh journal’s report has gud anzwr:2

teh specifics ov mistah. jobz’s surgery couldn’t bees establishd, but accordin 2 teh unitd netwerk 4 organ sharin, which managez teh transplant netwerk in teh u.s., thar r no residency requirementz 4 transplants. havin teh procedure dun in tennessee makez sense cuz itz list ov patients waitin 4 transplants iz shortr than in lotz da othr statez. accordin 2 data providd by unos, in 2006, teh median numbr ov dais frum joinin teh liver waitin list 2 transplant wuz 306 nationally. in tennessee, it wuz 48 dais.

but if teh journal knowz dat jobz had transplant, an knowz dat it wuz performd in tennessee, y dun they knoe which hospital? again frum der report:

3 hospitals in tennessee — le bonheur children’s medical centr in memphis, vanderbilt university medical centr in nashville an methodist university hospital in memphis — r designated as liver-transplant centers, accordin 2 unos. spokeswoman 4 le bonheur sed teh hospital doesn’t perform liver transplants in adults. vanderbilt spokesman sed it didnt treat mistah. jobz. spokeswoman 4 methodist university sed mistah. jobz isnt listed as patient thar.

readin tween teh linez, if jobz had liver transplant in tennessee, it must has been at wan ov thees 3 hospitals. 2 flatly deny it, but teh third, methodist university, simply statd jobz “isn’t listed as patient” — present tense, not past tense. so it must has been performd thar. but y can’t teh journal state dat as fact as well?

regardin teh timin an source ov teh leak

dat dis newz broke monthz aftr teh purportd transplant, at midnight on teh fridai ov wut appearz 2 bees teh most successful nu product launch in apple history, strikez me as beyond coincidence. mah furst thot wuz dat it must bees deliberate, timed leak frum apple. assumin teh story iz true an dat apple felt teh ned 2 evenshully release teh newz, when bettr 2 release it than on teh vary dai when it most appearz dat apple has continud 2 thrive while jobz wuz on medical leef? mg siegler at techcrunch speculates similarly:

we’d bees remiss if we didnt note dat teh timin ov dis story appearz favorable 4 apple. dis newz breakz late on fridai, aftr apple has jus held successful launch ov vary high profile nu product, teh ifone 3gs, dat sent teh stock soaring todai. obviously, teh markit won’t bees open again til mondai.

i dun c how teh leak cud has come frum someone wif competitive interest against apple. teh timin iz completely favorable 2 apple; if teh leak had come frum someone wishing ill against apple, it wud has come at sum tiem, any tiem, othr than in teh wake ov teh extremely successful ifone 3gs launch. plus, othr than teh surprise dat jobz had liver transplant in teh furst place, teh gist ov teh article iz largely favorable 2 apple. it emphasizes dat jobz iz recovering, iz still set 2 return 2 werk dis month, an has already been seen on apple’s campus recently. it iz also teh case dat it wud bees unconscionable 4 teh informashun 2 come frum someone wif posishun against apple an 4 teh journal not 2 describe teh source as such.

thus i c only 3 posible sourcez 4 teh leak.

theory 1: dat teh informashun came without jobz’s permishun or knowledge, frum healthcare providr wif knowledge ov jobz’s medical situashun. presumably, given teh journal’s report, frum someone at methodist university hospital in memphis. such leak wud clearly bees violation ov hipaa privacy lawz. dis might explain teh uttr lack ov sourcin an teh certainty as 2 teh veracity ov teh informashun, but it wud not explain teh perfik-4-apple timin ov teh leak, which timin i firmly bleev iz simply 2 convenient 2 bees coincidence. it wud also raise serious queshuns regardin teh ethics ov teh wall street journal. i therefore discount dis possibility.

theory 2: dat teh leak wuz authorizd by jobz him. i doubt jobz personally spoke 2 teh journal reporters (c below), but it cud has been someone close 2 him (if so, i’d gues katie cotton or someone else high up in apple communications) doin it wif hims permishun. teh thinkin behind dis theory wud bees dat if teh informashun wuz goin 2 become public evenshully, y not control it an has it come out at teh most advantageous tiem posible. dis scenario wud explain teh certainty ov teh informashun, but not teh odd lack ov sourcin.

mah thoughtz then ran 2 teh possibility dat perhapz jobz him iz teh source — he has occashunally calld reporters personally. an if he offrd teh informashun only on teh condishun dat it not bees sourced 2 him by naym, perhapz teh journal couldn’t brin themselvez 2 describe jobz him as merely “a source familiar wif teh situashun” or somesuch. but teh second paragraf in teh journal story seemz 2 preclude jobz personally as teh source:

mistah. jobz didnt respond 2 an email requesting comment. “steve continuez 2 look forward 2 returning at teh end ov june, an thar’s nothin furthr 2 sai,” sed apple spokeswoman katie cotton.

dat language leaves teh clear impression dat jobz did not personally contribute 2 teh report, an it impliez dat katie cotton did not eithr. iz wan ting 4 reporters 2 omit informashun; it iz somethin else entirely 2 purposefully mislead readerz.

thar r also certain implications in teh journal’s story dat cast jobz in an unflattering light.

william hawkins, doctor specializing in pancreatic an gastrointestinal surgery at washington university in st. louis, mo., sed dat teh type ov slow-growin pancreatic tumor mistah. jobz had will commonly metastasize in anothr organ durin patient’s lifetime, an dat teh organ iz usually teh liver. “all total, 75% ov patients r goin 2 has teh disease spread ovar teh course ov der life,” sed dr. hawkins, hoo has not treatd mistah. jobz.

gettin liver transplant 2 treat metastasized neuroendocrine tumor iz controvershul cuz livers r scarce an teh surgery’s efficacy as cure hasn’t been proved, dr. hawkins addd. he sed dat patients whose tumors has metastasized can liv 4 as lotz da as 10 yeers without any treatment so it iz hard 2 determine how successful transplant has been in curing teh disease.

dis iz ugly busines. they’re quoting doctor hoo specializes in pancreatic an gastrointestinal surgery as sayin (1) dat iz common 4 someone hoo had teh cancer jobz had 2 subsequently git cancer in der liver; (2) dat liver transplants r not proven 2 halp in such cases; an (3) obtainin liver transplant in such cases iz therefore controvershul cuz iz takin liver dat cud otherwize has been put 2 bettr use by someone wif sum othr type ov liver ailment. thar iz no othr wai 2 read dis than as an implication dat steve jobz cud has gotten liver dat shud has gone 2 someone else. keep in mind dat dis entire ugly implication iz not statd as fact an iz attributed as speculashun frum doctor hoo admittedly has not treatd steve jobz. but teh fact dat it iz in teh story at all makez me queshun whethr any ov teh informashun in teh story came wif steve jobz’s permishun, tacit or otherwize.

theory 3: dat membr ov apple’s bord ov directorz leaked teh informashun 2 teh journal without jobz’s permishun or knowledge, or perhapz, if teh mattr ov public disclosure had been posed 2 an dismissd by jobz at bord mettin, expressly against jobz’s wishez. teh scenario i am imaginin her iz dat jobz doez not wish 2 reveal anythin regardin hims medical situashun, but dat membr (or contingent) ov apple’s bord believez it iz in teh company’s interest 2 release teh basic gist ov teh story, regardles ov jobz’s wishez. dis scenario wud explain teh timin, teh certainty, an perhapz even teh lack ov sourcin. (although if dis scenario iz teh case, certainly jobz him must suspect teh source ov teh leak iz frum teh bord.)

note also dat sum porshuns ov kane an lublin’s wsj report must has been sourced frum someone on, or vary close 2, apple’s bord ov directorz:

when he doez return, mistah. jobz cud bees encouraged by hims physicians 2 initially “work part-tiem 4 month or 2,” person familiar wif teh thinkin at apple sed. dat cud lead tim cook, apple’s chief operatin officer, 2 taek “a moar encompassing role,” dis person sed. teh person addd dat mistah. cook cud bees appointed 2 apple’s bord in teh not-2-distant future. […]

at least sum apple directorz wuz aware ov teh ceo’s surgery. as part ov an agreement wif mistah. jobz in place b4 he went on leef, sum bord memberz has been briefd weekly on teh ceo’s condishun by hims physician.

hoo else othr than source on apple’s bord wud knoe dat tim cook cud soon join teh bord, or dat sum bord memberz wuz briefd weekly?3

dis third scenario iz mah best gues as 2 teh journal’s source. it soundz sensational 2 speculate dat thar iz conflict in dis regard tween jobz an at least sum contingent ov apple’s bord ov directorz, but sensational or not, it makez moar sense 2 me than any othr scenario.

it also fitz wif mah belief dat steve jobz doez not wants 2 disclose anythin bout hims health whatsoevr.

  1. as usual, me linking 2 google redirection 2 teh wsj story. if i link directly 2 teh wsj web siet, only paid wsj subscriberz will bees able 2 read teh story. teh wsj allowz referrals frum google 2 c fol article content. ↩

  2. apple bord membr an jobz confidant al gore iz frum tennessee. but hims home iz in nashville, not memphis, so i can’t finks ov any reason gore wud has playd role in jobz’s decishun 2 go thar. ↩

  3. in theory teh journal’s source cud bees tim cook, but dat goez against everythin i has evr herd bout cook. i bleev him 2 bees loyal, honest, an 2 has deservedly earned steve jobz’s fol trust. i truly bleev dat cook wud mutch prefr 2 continue in hims current role in an apple wif jobz as ceo than 2 bees ceo ov jobz-les apple. plus, cook doesn’t ned 2 angle thru teh pres 4 anythin. if jobz stepz down as ceo any tiem in teh foreseeable future, teh ceo job goez 2 cook. no wan whose opinion i value doubts dis. iz simply queshun ov whethr cook runz operashuns as “coo” wif steve jobz overseeing product development, or as “ceo” without steve jobz overseeing product development. ↩

★ wwdc 2009 wrap-up

acros teh street frum moscone west on teh furst dai ov wwdc, thar remained banners frum sun’s javaone conference teh week prior — touching remindr dat tiems an fortunez change, an dat annual conferences often serve as markers ov teh state ov teh industry.

javaone iz an enormous conference. apple reportd 5,200 wwdc attendeez dis yer, an, 2 me, it once again felt moar crowded than evr b4. sun reportd 3 tiems as lotz da attendeez 4 javaone. comparin any 2 conferences, especially long-standing onez such as javaone an wwdc, iz apples-2-oranges, but thar’s no denyin dat javaone has been at least as hooj deal 4 sun’s developr community as wwdc has been 4 apple’s.

but nao dat sun iz in teh midst ov bein folded into oracle, iz an open queshun as 2 whethr thar will even bees anothr javaone. even if thar iz anothr, it will surely bees different, comin as it must in future wer sun iz subsidiary ov oracle rathr than standalone industry titan. (as complete outsider 2 teh sun an java communities, i findz tim bray’s elegiac javaone coverage 2 bees compellin.)

2 crudely paraphrase dylan, conference not busy bein born iz busy dying. wwdc iz busy bein born. teh gestalt ov teh conference, an ov apple’s developr community, iz vary mutch in flux. not jus changin but growin. tween teh newton an ifone eras, wwdc wuz effectively mac developr conference. dat’s no longr teh case, an wif each passing yer thar’s palpable difference 2 teh vibe. (an iz not jus cuz ov teh ifone, eithr. thar r nao seriez ov gud seshuns each yer 4 web developrz targetin webkit.)

2 yeers ago, on teh cusp ov teh ifone’s release, wuz teh last ov teh mostly-all-mac wwdcs. teh vibe dat yer boiled down 2 “i hope they let us rite native appz 4 dis ting.”

both dis yer an last, thar has been single seshuns whose titlez epitomized dat yer’s conference. last yer, teh furst yer wif an ifone development track, dat seshun wuz titled “intro 2 mac os x”. iz hard 2 imagine such seshun title even wan yer earlir at wwdc, but i walked by dat seshun last yer jus 2 c how crowded it wuz, an teh line 2 git in ran out teh door an down teh hall all teh wai 2 teh escalators. they had 2 turn peeps away. (apple replayed teh seshun on video latr in teh week an teh replay filled 2 capacity, 2.)

dis yer, teh emblematic seshun wuz titled “mac programmin 4 ifone developrz”. me not even sure wut 2 sai bout dat, othr than 2 confirm dat anecdotal evidence suggestz dat nu-2-apple ifone developrz r inded vary mutch interestd in developin 4 teh mac nao, 2.

on teh whole, thar wuz palpable sense dat teh ifone iz peer 2 teh mac in apple’s eyes. dis isnt bout counting how lotz da seshuns wuz devoted 2 each. nor iz it an indication dat teh mac as platform iz slowing. quite teh opposite in fact — apple iz sellin moar macz than evr, an, knock on wood, thar’s strong consensus amongst developrz dat snow lepprd iz goin 2 bees teh best release ov mac os x yet. iz simply dat 4 howevr fast teh mac iz growin, teh ifone iz growin far fastr.

but teh 2 platformz r symbiotically intertwined. teh mondai schedule at wwdc iz static. in teh mornin comez teh keynote, which teh pres attends an wer all public announcements r made. aftr lunch, though, thar comez wut iz effectively second keynote, dis tiem wif material aimed squarely at developrz. technical keynote, as compared 2 teh mornin’s marketin keynote, if u will. dis technical keynote has 4 as long as i can remembr been titled “mac os x state ov teh union”. dis yer teh title changd 2 “core os state ov teh union”.

hence teh symbiosis: apple nao has 2 fol-fledged developr platformz, mac os x an ifone os, derived frum wan core sistem. neithr felt moar important than teh othr dis yer at wwdc, which iz remarkable considerin dat wan ov them hadn’t even shippd 2 yeers ago.

but look at der vectors — der relative rates ov growth — an ponder how mutch longr til wwdc begins 2 feelz liek an ifone developr conference wif mac developr track. mah anzwr: next yer. in othr werdz, i finks it will has taken jus 3 yeers 4 teh ifone 2 supplant teh mac as apple’s primary platform. by 2011 it will bees obvious.

iz simply mattr ov userz. durin fil schiller’s keynote, he showd graph ov teh “os x” usr base ovar tiem, wif steady growth ovar teh furst part ov dis decade followed by sharp jump frum 25 2 75 million ovar teh past 2 yeers. dis figure wuz widely mis-citd, howevr, as showin growth in “mac os x” userz. it did not. teh graph sed “os x”, not “mac os x”, an wut apple meant 2 show wuz teh combined numbr ov userz ov mac os x an ifone os. it wuz vary misleadin an poorly-designd chart.

teh othr relevant numbr frum teh keynote: 40 million total ifonez an ipod touchez sold 2 date. clearly dat’s not quite teh same ting as 40 million ifone os userz, given dat sum ov us has already buyd several devicez, but iz in teh ballpark. so, as ov last week, apple estimates dat thar r bout teh same numbr ov ifone os userz as mac os x userz.

nao considr wut dose numberz will look liek yer frum nao, 12 monthz aftr teh ifone’s entry price droppd 2 $99.

★ wwdc 2009 predictions

wut i knoe, dun knoe, an knoe i dun knoe bout 2morrow’s wwdc announcements. as usual, plz, no wagering.

ifone 3gs

everythin i wrote bout last month in “teh next ifone” still standz. i expect apple 2 announce updatd ifonez wif significantly fastr processors, twice teh ram, an twice teh storage. i expectd pricez 2 remain teh same as teh current lineup: $199/299 4 16/32 gb, respectively. teh video camera iz goin 2 bees major sellin point.

wan additional tidbit i has herd iz teh nu hardware’s code naym: ifone 3gs. me not certain dat’s wut it’ll bees officially namd, but mah hunch iz yez. i has no idea wut teh s standz 4.1

teh othr nu tidbit iz battery life: 15-20 persent longr than teh ifone 3g.

as 4 form factor, i bleev teh 3gs will has teh same or vary similar dimensions as teh 3g; teh screen size iz unchanged an existin cases might fit teh 3gs. i assume dat teh nu modelz must look different — newer, cooler — in sum wai, but i dun knoe how.

lower-pricd ifonez

thar r pervasive rumorz dat apple iz also set 2 announce lower price pointz 4 teh ifone. teh finanshul tiems, citing anonymous sourcez “familiar wif teh initiative”, reportd it as fact.

i bleev dis iz true, an teh nu price will bees $99. but since i expect teh nu top-ov-teh-line ifone 3gs 2 start at $199, dat meanz teh $99 ifone must bees somethin else. i c 2 possibilitiez: () nu device, somethin dat iz 2 teh ifone wut teh ipod mini wuz 2 teh original ipod; or (b) teh existin 8 gb ifone 3g, unchanged but reduced in price.

i wud wager heavily on (b) — dat teh nu ifone 3gs modelz will not replace teh 3g, but rathr assume teh flagship posishun while teh yer-old 3g slidez down 2 teh second spot in teh product lineup. i bleev apple will evenshully create an ifone mini or nano or junior — somethin dat iz smallr an thinner, in an array ov colors but wif fewr featurez an lower tech specz, at lower pricez. an when they doez, they will promote it heavily in major play 4 raw mobile fone markit share.

i dun finks dat tiem iz nao, though, which iz y i bleev teh imminent $99 ifone will simply bees teh existin 3g at reduced price. me not even sure dis $99 ifone will bees announcd at wwdc — apple cud well wait til teh nu ifonez r available 4 sale 2 announce it. in fact, if me rite dat teh $99 ifone will simply bees reduced-price 3g, i wouldn’t bees surprisd if it wuz somethin apple sold only thru itz own storez, an perhapz only 4 limitd tiem til der stock ov old 3g modelz iz gone.

ifone tethering

iz no seekret dat ifone os 3.0 supportz tethering: sharin teh fone’s 3g internets connecshun wif ur computr. wut we dun knoe yet iz how dis will werk wif apple’s various carrir partnerz around teh wurld. it’d bees nice if it jus werkd, wif no additional charge ovar teh current data plan. but “it’d bees nice” seldom happenz wif fone carriers. so i expect well bees chargd 4 dis feachur; teh queshun iz how mutch.

at fair price an assumin teh feachur werkz well, ifone tethering cud obviate teh ned 4 somethin liek verizon’s mifi. i look forward 2 nevr paying 4 hotel or airport wi-fi survis again.

snow lepprd

teh hooj queshun wif snow lepprd isnt wif regard 2 technical detailz, but itz marketin. startin wif vershun 10.2, previous major updatez 2 mac os x has sold 4 $129, an wuz marketed almost entirely basd on der nu featurez. apple has explicitly made clear dat wif snow lepprd itz focus wuz not on addin nu featurez but rathr on improving an optimizing existin onez — shoring up teh foundashun ov teh core os shard by teh mac, ifone, apple tv, an future productz 2 bees namd latr. i finks dis wuz great idea. os x iz her 4 teh long haul — it iz teh foundashun ov apple’s entire busines 4 teh foreseeable future.

but how doez they sell mac os x 10.6 2 consumerz if it doesn’t brin major nu featurez? her r teh opshuns i c:

  1. sell it 4 $129, jus liek previous major updatez. advertise it as fastr an bettr. if it doesn’t sell as well as 10.5 lepprd did, well, so wut? slow uptake wud bees an irritation 4 developrz hoo wants 2 ship software dat depends on 10.6-specific apis, but it wouldn’t bees teh end ov teh wurld. an hoo knowz? apple has nevr trid sellin fol-pricd os update basd on somethin othr than nu featurez — it might sell as well or bettr than 10.5 did. maybe iz not true dat peeps only pay 4 featurez upgradez.

  2. sell it 4 lower price, sai $59.

  3. sell it 4 nominal price, sai $19. i finks free iz out ov teh queshun, if only cuz ov apple’s interpretation ov u.s. accouting regulations. they giv ifone ownerz free os updatez cuz they use subscripshun-basd accouting 4 ifonez. they charge ipod touch ownerz 4 teh same os updatez, cuz ipod touchez aren’t accounted 4 on subscripshun basis. teh mac iz liek teh ipod touch in dis regard, so i finks free snow lepprd isnt posible.

teh risk wif opshuns 2 an 3 iz dat it might mak it moar difficult 4 apple 2 go bak 2 chargin $129 4 10.7 an beyond. but apple iz not microsoft. os upgrade revenue iz nice extra 4 apple, not core part ov itz busines.

teh wildcard wif snow lepprd wud bees if apple wuz set 2 unveil sum sort ov heretofore seekret nu featurez, featurez which they cud then use as teh basis 4 an advertisin campaign an teh regular $129 price. but frum everythin i has herd, snow lepprd development iz winding down — they’re tyin off loose endz an fixin bugs.

i has no idea how apple iz goin 2 play dis.

marble

teh othr x-factor iz “marble”, teh rumord redesign ov teh entire os’s visual appearance. cud dat bees teh seekret snow lepprd “feature”? 6 monthz ago dat’s wut i wuz expecting: dat frum an engineerin point ov view, snow lepprd’s changez wud bees low-level, but dat by makin everythin look all-nu, apple wud has an obvious wai 2 sell it 2 consumerz as somethin wurth paying 4. if it lookz nu it iz nu, frum normal person’s perspectiv.

but while i am convincd dat “marble” iz real design project at apple, i no longr bleev it iz slated 4 snow lepprd. nu visual appearance isnt somethin apple can spring on third-party developrz at teh last moment. if they plan 2 ship snow lepprd soon — sai, by teh end ov august — dat jus isnt enough tiem 2 allow developrz 2 update der software 2 look gud undr nu ui theme. (thar’s also teh problem ov creatin software dat lookz gud undr both teh nu an old themes.)

so mah hunch iz no marble 4 snow lepprd — dat iz nao 10.7 ting. but i’d nevr bet 2 mutch money on teh side ov apple accommodating teh needz ov third-party developrz.

teh tablet

me completely convincd dat teh tablet iz real. but i am almost jus as convincd dat it iz not ready 2 bees announcd. patience on dis wan.

  1. sped? ↩